The Grand Master versus the Little Master

The Grand Master versus the Little Master

It’s been a long time since I have written a blog and I had almost given up on blogging. The recent series of events and a number of articles that have gone through have led to an interesting question within me about which I am going to write in this blog. It’s quite an intriguing title that I have started to write on, a little puzzling too. Let me explain first about the title. The Grand Master in the title is ‘Grand Master’ Vishwanathan Anand. The Little Master in the title is none other than Sachin Tendulkar. How can they be competing against each other given that they are from two different sporting disciplines? Well, it so happens that they are actually competing against each other in one particular race.

First let me explain about some of the recent events involving them and what I read about these great men and what led to this title…..
Indian Premier League (IPL) 2010 has just concluded. My favorite team Chennai Super Kings (CSK) led by Mahendra Singh Dhoni defeated the Mumbai Indians (MI) led by Sachin Tendulkar. Though MI lost the cup, Sachin ended up with the most number of runs in this edition and was the deserving winner of the ‘Orange Cap’ – a memento for the leading run scorer in each edition of IPL. Tendulkar played the finals despite having stitches in his hand. He batted valiantly but unfortunately could not prevent his team from losing. Earlier this year he achieved the feat of scoring the highest individual innings score in ODI – He scored a massive 200 runs in the match against South Africa in February 2010 at Gwalior. His list of records in cricket is endless. Despite being a very successful cricketer and an icon/ demigod for millions of his fans he is pretty down to earth. For a little bit of history about Tendulkar and a list of his records please visit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachin_Tendulkar

As I am writing this blog, the 12 round duel between Vishwanathan Anand and Veselin Topalov (http://www.anand-topalov.com/) taking place in Bulgaria is mid way through. Anand is currently leading at 3.5 points to Topalov’s 2.5 points, but the title race is far from over. To give a little bit of background about Anand: Anand is the current World Chess Champion. He is the first Chess player in history to win the World Championship in three different formats: Knockout, Tournament, and Match. Veseline Topalov is challenging Anand’s position as World Champion and by the end of the 12th round match between them on 11th May we will get to know whether Anand or Topalov will emerge victorious. Anand is also one of the only five players in history to break the 2800 mark on the FIDE rating list. For a little bit of history about Anand and a list of his records please visit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vishwanathan_Anand
That still leaves us far from how/ why I zeroed in on this title. So how on earth did this thought occur to me? Well, I was reading commentary in Tamil about the matches between Anand and Topalov written by Lalitha Ram (http://cricketthavira.wordpress.com/) on the Tamil blog that I regularly follow (http://idlyvadai.blogspot.com/). After I finished reading the blog, I went to check out about Anand on Wikipedia. Then suddenly out of nowhere I decided to check out about Sachin on Wikipedia. As I was going through one particular section, something struck me; I opened Anand’s profile on Wikipedia in another window and compared it with Sachin. It so happened that Anand and Sachin are racing against each other and my blog is about this race and who might win in this race.

Before we see what this race is all about, a few nuggets of information that would serve as disclaimer or help to provide a level playing field. Anand (born 1969) is four years elder to Sachin (1973). Anand came into public attention in 1984 (when he became youngest Indian to win ‘International Master’ title) five years ahead of Sachin’s historical tour to Pakistan. On the flip side Sachin is an international icon in a very popular/ viewer friendly form of sport which is also India’s National Sporting Passion. Therefore the amount of visibility and adulation that he receives is far higher than Anand. With this disclaimer let me start elaborating about what this race is all about.

Take a look at the list below:
1. Anand won the Arjuna award (an award to Indian sportsmen from government of India) in 1985. Sachin won the Arjuna award in 1994.
2. Anand won the Padma Shri award (India’s fourth highest civilian honor) in 1987. Sachin won the Padma Shri award in 1999.
3. Anand won the inaugural Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna award (India's highest sporting honor) in 1991- 1992. Sachin won the Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna award in 1997 – 1998.
4. Anand became the first sportsperson to win Padma Vibhushan (India's second highest civilian award) in 2007. Sachin won the Padma Vibhushan in 2008.

So by this time it would have become clear to you what this race between Anand and Sachin (that I am talking about) is all about – It’s about the Bharat Ratna (India’s highest civilian honor). It so happens that no sportsperson has won the Bharat Ratna so far (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Ratna#Complete_list_of_recipients). So whichever of these gentlemen wins the Bharat Ratna ahead of the other will also become the first sportsperson to win the Bharat Ratna.

To be fair enough there have been a few sportspersons (four to be precise) in the past who should have been conferred with the Bharat Ratna (Well that’s my list, there might be many more deserving sports personalities); They are Major Dhyan Chand (3 Olympic gold medals), Leslie Claudius (3 Olympic gold medals and a silver medal – a world record in Hockey that he shares with Udham Singh), Udham Singh (3 Olympic gold medals and a silver medal) and Balbir Singh Sr. (3 Olympic gold medals); all from the Indian Hockey fraternity. The reasons to why one of these men if not all of them did not win the Bharat Ratna is a puzzle that only Indian politicians can solve. It is also quite possible (though only a remote possibility) that a sportsperson apart from Anand & Sachin might win the Bharat Ratna first.
But my bet would be that one of these men would win the Bharat Ratna ahead of any other sportsmen. In fact I don’t see any one sportsperson in the current generation except for Leander Paes, who come anywhere close to Anand and Sachin (Tenure of successful career, being a very good ambassador for their respective sporting disciplines, importance of the milestones achieved, consistency of performance and keeping the nation’s flag fluttering proudly in the international sporting arena).

Well then which one of them will win the award first? Anand’s and Sachin’s names have been doing the rounds for Bharat Ratna. (Take a look at the following news items: http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bharat-ratna-for-sachin--blog--face-the-nation-howzzat/55661-3.html?from=search-relatedstories , http://beta.thehindu.com/sport/cricket/article139073.ece , http://blogs.reuters.com/india/2010/03/03/bharat-ratna-for-sachin-tendulkar/ , http://community.dreamcricket.com/community/blogs/not_cricket/archive/2010/03/02/bharat-ratna-for-srt-not-yet.aspx ).

Sachin’s case: It looks like the Maharashtra government is going to recommend Sachin’s name for the Bharat Ratna this year. The government might decide to honor Sachin this year itself. Even if he is not conferred with the honor this year, the next year the ODI cricket world cup will be jointly hosted by India. Sachin has never been part of a worldcup winning team and would be keen to be part of the worldcup winning team next year. If India manages to win the worldcup, the voice of all those people supporting Sachin’s candidature would be deafening. If India does not win, Sachin might still decide to retire. If Sachin retires, the grateful nation would want to give him a fitting farewell from the sports field and might confer the Bharat Ratna to Sachin.

Anand’s case: It’s not clear whether the Tamil Nadu government has recommended Anand’s name in the past or is planning to recommend this year. If Anand beats Topalov to defend his world title, then there would not be much left for him to achieve in the Chess Arena (Remember Anand has won the world title in three different formats and if he beats Topalov he would have also successfully defended his world title). In that case, the government might honor the person who has achieved the pinnacle in his sporting discipline with the Bharat Ratna.
That still does not answer who will win the Bharat Ratna first. At this point in time Sachin is a little ahead in the race with his state government thinking about recommending his name. But wait till Anand wins the duel against Topalov; Tamil Nadu government might recommend Anand’s name. Then the race would be on even footing. If the Tamil Nadu government does not Anand’s name then Sachin would definitely have the edge.

The political angle to this whole race is that both NCP which is part of the coalition with Congress that rules Maharashtra (from where Sachin hails from) and DMK which rules Tamil Nadu (from where Anand hails from) are key allies in India’s central government. If both these state governments recommend a deserving sportsperson from their state this year, the central government might honor both of them this year itself so as to keep both its allies happy. In that case, the race between Anand & Sachin would end in a tie.

Irrespective of whether politicians support their cause or not, Anand and Sachin are deserving sportspersons who should be conferred with the Bharat Ratna at the earliest. The same applies to Leander Paes also.

Visit by Major Karthik

It’s not quite often that an Army officer visits my company, let alone addressing my team. My team’s VP had arranged for a session with one of his friends from the Army, Major Karthik on Tuesday (10th February). The entire team had gathered on our working floor to listen to him. After the initial introduction by my VP, Major Karthik started with his speech/ talk.

He started off by introducing himself. I thought for an Army officer, he had a very milder voice. He recounted on how he chose the path less travelled (joining the Army through NDA) and how he’s proud to say that it has made all the difference. His was a very interesting speech filled with lot of ‘Straight from the Heart’ comments and observations, interspersed with witty comments and Anecdotes. Sample – He said, ‘The Man in love can do anything’, after a very short pause he added ‘Because the woman in love can ask for anything’.

He also described about the various development activities that his unit was carrying out in the border areas. He was very happy that in a state such as J&K that has been ravaged by insurgency and terrorism people actually started using democratic means such voting and public rallies to express their opinions. To a question about how the gap in officers level in the Services can be bridged, he replied that the Services should have tie-ups with corporates to absorb the servicemen who complete their short service commission and decide to move on to civilian jobs. He said that if these ex-servicemen find it very difficult to find a mainstream job, then it will discourage other youngsters in choosing short service commission as a career option.

Overall his speech was very informative and interesting and I think he was a very Ambassador for the Army. The only thing that could have been better was if he had turned up in his Army uniform rather than a civilian outfit. But I guess, there is a Army Protocol on when and where the Servicemen can turn up in their uniforms, so can’t complain a lot about this fact.

India’s message to the people of Pakistan

While our nation is evaluating the best course of action to pursue to punish the perpetrators of the various terrorist attacks that took place in the past year, it is also important to focus on the message that we would like to convey to the people of Pakistan. We should be clear in mind that we need to address two different parties inside Pakistan: the people and the government/ army. We should not forget the fact that till recently Pakistan was a nation ruled by a military dictator despite widespread disapproval by the people. There is a possibility that the Pakistani army is supporting terror groups targeted at India without any support from the people.

The message that we have conveyed so far to the general public in Pakistan leaves a lot to be desired. The government for its part has been allaying any fears of war between the two countries through the external affairs minister. But there have been instances where esteemed parliamentarians or defense personnel have conveyed an alternate opinion. To add to the problem the Indian media is running an opinion poll or panel discussion every other day centered on the war theme.

In the face of increase in the number of terror attacks in the past year, the government has decided to put on hold all ties with Pakistan. The message to the whole of Pakistan so far has been ‘Take action on the terrorists hiding in your country because it is good for India.’ This approach is not bound to yield favorable results. Instead we should be appealing to the Pakistani people with the message ‘Take action on the terrorists hiding in your country because it is mutually beneficial to both India and Pakistan.’

In recent times the common people in Pakistan have become victims of terrorists hiding within their own country as much as India is a victim of Pakistan based terror groups. The terror attack on Pakistan’s Marriot preceded the terror attacks on India’s Taj & Oberoi by several months. The government should bear in mind that in addition to creating destruction in India the other major goal of terrorists who carry out attacks on India is to disrupt any level of friendship from developing between India & Pakistan. In an environment of growing friendship and mutual trust between these two countries, there would be no need for the Pakistani army to wage any proxy war against India which would diminish the dependence of the Pakistani army on these terror groups which would be detrimental to the interests of these terror groups.

Therefore it is necessary for the government of India to provide every opportunity for friendship and trust to develop between the people of both the countries. As a part of this process the government should allow people to people contacts like sports and cultural events. In addition the government should advise the Indian Media not to provide too much focus on the possibility of war between the two countries.

It is important for us to keep in mind that the post-Musharaff democratic era in Pakistan is still at a nascent stage. The public support to army in Pakistan till recently was at an all time low and Musharaff relinquished his power due to adverse public opinion. Any fear of war with India will once again force the people of Pakistan to support its army which will only weaken the standing of the democratic government in Pakistan vis-à-vis the Pakistani army. Therefore it is imperative that we should help democracy in Pakistan to flourish. For this to happen, the general public in Pakistan should feel that the Indian army as less of a threat compared to the association of its own army with terror groups.

While the Indian government should continue to pressurize the Pakistani government to take action against terror groups hiding in Pakistan through diplomatic means, the message that we convey to the Pakistani people through the general media should be that India wants friendship with the people of Pakistan but the terrorists hiding in Pakistan are trying to play spoilsport.

Setting our house in order

It has been over a month since the terrorist attack on Mumbai. The nation has slowly returned to normalcy, but it will take a long time for the families of the victims to recover from the shock of losing the loved ones. There have been so many hue and cries over who owns moral responsibility for the security lapse of this scale. In a sense of owning moral responsibility as well as to lessen the public anger towards it, the ruling coalition has let go of the Chief Minister of the state and the Central home minister. These actions while being only symbolic does not address the realities on the ground.

The attack on Mumbai consists of a series of events that can be grouped into two. Group one consists of all the activities from recruitment of manpower for the terrorist organizations, training, financial assistance and choosing targets to carry out the attack. By this time, it has become more or less clear that all these activities have been performed within the territory of our neighbor Pakistan. Activities in group two consist of accessing Indian Territory & all the mayhem that the terrorists unleashed upon Mumbai.

Too much of attention of Indian politicians and Indian media has been centered on the fact that our neighboring country is a flourishing ground for terrorists aimed at destabilizing our country. However, not enough attention has been given to fact that terrorists have actually sneaked into our country to carry out their ruthless crimes. For the terrorists to have entered our country and carried out these attacks, they should have first evaded our central intelligence agencies, secondly they have sailed in the Arabian Sea evading the scrutiny and interception by Indian Navy & Coast guards and finally they actually landed in Mumbai where they took the ill-equipped State Police by surprise. The fact that they have managed to get the better of all these security layers is a little disturbing. Even more disturbing is the fact that despite having found that a similar security shortcoming allowed the 1993 Mumbai blasts, our political class and security agencies have not learnt their lessons.

There is an old saying in Chinese which goes on something like this: ‘If you slap me once, it’s your fault; if you slap me twice, it’s my fault.’ Terrorists have slapped India multiple times in the past year alone. Yet, our political class in general and the government in particular are only pointing fingers at our neighbor but are in a perennial state of self denial about the short comings of our security agencies.

To take the example from the medical world, to prevent any disease attack on the body it is necessary to address immune system of the body. Our country’s immune system consists of the eco-system of all our security establishments. However strong the terrorists trained and backed up by our neighbors are and however hard they try, if our security agencies are functioning effectively and efficiently they will not be able to carry out cold blooded murders in our soil.
In addition to pressurizing Pakistan to take action on terrorists holed out in Pakistan, it is also necessary to strengthen our security establishments. First and foremost is the need to increase the coordination between the various central security agencies and state security agencies. Secondly, the government should increase the coordination between the security establishments of the states bordering Pakistan. This coordination could be activities like sharing intelligence information, joint training, sharing of best practices etc. Thirdly we need to provide the State Police with better equipment & training. While the center has hinted on creating a national level investigating agency, it should not forget and ignore the critical role that can be played by the state police in collecting ground level information.

As the persuasion of Pakistan to take action on terrorists holed out in its territory is going to be time consuming one, the Indian government should simultaneously address the current shortcomings of our security agencies. If we succeed in this second goal we can ensure in the security of our nation irrespective of whether we succeed in the first goal.

Consequences of India’s War with Pakistan

Ever since the terrorist attacks on Mumbai took place, there have been certain sections of the public, political class and media that have been demanding military action against Pakistan or atleast a limited scale airstrikes against terrorist camps inside Pakistan.

Targeted airstrikes or military action can only be taken if there is high degree of coordination between Indian intelligence agencies and armed forces. Also the inputs from intelligence agencies should be accurate, specific and timely. As the Mumbai attacks have shown Indian Intelligence agencies and Indian Security agencies don’t see eye to eye. Also past experience says that inputs from intelligence agencies have not been timely or very specific. If the inputs from intelligence agencies turn out to be inaccurate and we end up causing harm to Pakistani civilians, we might have to face the anger of Pakistani people and international public.

We might initiate a limited scale military action against terror camps inside Pakistan but we would be risking ourselves into fighting a full-fledged war with Pakistan. India and Pakistan have fought three full scale wars in 1947, 1965 and 1971. The conflicts of 1947 and 1965 ended without decisive victories to either side. While we were victorious in 1971 and liberated Bangladesh, the long term effect has been that Bangladesh has also emerged as some source of concern for India with respect to supporting terror groups targeting India. Add to this, the fact that both India and Pakistan are nuclear weapon states. If public opinion in India can force Dr. Manmohan Singh to initiate a limited scale airstrikes against terror camps inside Pakistan the same public opinion in Pakistan can force Mr. Asif Ali Zardari to initiate nuclear strikes against India. What is the possibility of India achieving a decisive victory in the case of a war with Pakistan now? In my opinion, the moment India and Pakistan went nuclear sometimes in 1998 they lost the opportunity to have decisive victories to either side in all future India Pakistan conflicts.

Even a one week war with Pakistan using conventional weapons has been estimated to cost India a huge sum. If the war were to go nuclear, the cost to India could be mind-blowing. Three of India’s most prosperous states Maharashtra, Gujarat and Punjab would be easy targets to Pakistani armed forces, which would mean industrial productivity, trade and commerce in these states would affected further denting India’s economic ability. And the most important consequence of any war, the loss of human lives would be enormous in the case of a nuclear conflict. The war would also mean the withdrawal of Pakistani army stationed in their western borders leading to more terrorists having easy access to Pakistan.

If we do not understand the possible scale of human suffering that this war would cause and want to go to war with Pakistan, then we are dumb. If we understand the possible quantum of destruction that this war would cause, but would still want to go to war, then we are heartless. Any war with either the terror camps within Pakistan or with the Pakistani army is going to cause loses of civilian life within Pakistan. This would lead to public anger in Pakistan; the most obvious beneficiaries of this will be the terrorists themselves against whom we are planning to wage a war. To quote George Soros, ‘We should not become victims who turned perpetrators, creating more victims who would become perpetrators themselves creating more victims eventually’ setting off a vicious cycle.

India has everything to lose from going to war with Pakistan. We will have to bear huge loses to life and property and the war will be a huge monetary burden on us. Public opinion in Pakistan will once again turn favorable to the Pakistani army. International community might consider that we are violating Pakistan’s sovereignty. On top of all this, the possibility of a decisive victory looks very low. In the light of the all the negative consequences of the war with Pakistan, diplomacy is our only hope and the only possible solution for lasting peace in South Asia.

Rajinimania

I am not a fan of Rajinikanth. I decided to write this blog after seeing the hype around the release of his new movie 'Sivaji - The Boss'.

Facts about Rajinikanth:

Original Name: Shivaji Rao Gaekwad

Current Profession: Movie Actor
Film industry: Tamil (India)

Movies acted: 170 (100 in Tamil alone)

Next project: Sultan - the warrior (animated movie to be directed by his daughter)

Salary for last Movie: About $9,000,000

Status: Super Star - Tamil Film Industry

Registered fan clubs: 69,000 (as per claims in Indian TV channels)

Alumnus of: Madras Film Institute (Batch of 1974)

Previous Profession: Bus Conductor - BMTC, Bangalore

Rajinikanth a.k.a Shivaji Rao Gaekwad is the reigning 'Super Star' of Tamil Film Industry. He's the highest earning actor in India and probably the second highest earning actor in Asia after Jakie Chan from Hong Kong. His latest movie 'Sivaji - the Boss', released on June 15 is running to packed houses. The movie is released in Tamil Nadu, Andhrapradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, Bombay, Pune, New Delhi (All in India), Srilanka, Malaysia, Singapore, Middle East, USA & UK. The movie will be shortly releasing in Japan. The movie was produced at a cost of $13,000,000 using the best technical talents in the Tamil Film industry by AVM Productions, the oldest and the largest film production house in the Tamil Film Industry.

Rajinikanth made is film debut in 1975 as a supporting actor. He then acted in negative roles for sometime before getting opportunities to act as a hero. While in his earlier films he got a chance to display his acting skills, he's more famous for his style and on-screen mannerism. He got the title of 'Super Star' in 1987. Since that time only three of his movies have failed to make a profit in the box office. Most of his movies are formula movies targeted at youngsters filled with 'punch dialogues' and logic defying stunts. The amount of adulation that his fans have for him would put any Hollywood actor to shame.

Whether we like him as a actor or not, his rags-to-riches true story is an inspirational one. Rajinikanth a Marati by birth, lost his parents when he was a kid and was brought up by his elder brother. As an youth he worked as a bus conductor with BMTC in Bangalore. With the help and support of his friends he joined the Madras Film Institute, Chennai. In a career spanning 32 years he has become the most successful actor in the whole of South India commanding the appreciation and respect of film personalities across India.

Heroes and Fans (Part 2)

There is no limit on the amount of influence that our heroes can have over our lives or the extent of adulation that we would have towards them. Not to mention about the activities that we would do as a result of this adulation and influence. People might cry while watching the concert of their famous rock star/band (e.g.Beatles), might cry when their famous sportsperson/ team looses (e.g.Steffi Graf, Brazil's soccer team). And if its India or Pakistan, fans might throw water bottles on the opposition players if their national cricket team is about to loose their match.

Why do rational people become irrational when it comes to their heroes? Indian Cricket Team lost its world cup (1996) semifinal match against Sri Lanka by default because angry Indian fans at Eden Gardens Stadium, Calcutta started throwing water bottles on the fielding Srilankan side. This is probably the first and only instance where a match was awarded to a team by default - what a national shame! Every now and then we find supporters of one political party clashing with supporters of a different political party, fans of one football club clashing with fans of opposition football club etc. Fans might stop a match, burn books, effigies, posters of their fallen heroes. Why do people resort to such activities?

Heroes and Fans (Part 1)

Most of us are ordinary human beings. Not many people celebrate us or our activities and achievements. We go about doing our day to day activities with ease and sometimes with a great sense of satisfaction. The trouble is there are a million other people who are similar to us, do similar activities with the same favorable results. Therefore there is no one to notice or appreciate our actions other than our family or close friends. As minutes become hours, hours become days and days become years we continue with the same or similar line of activities. We get bored... bored to the core and enervated!

And that's when we look for entertainment and inspiration. Entertainment of relax and inspiration to carry on with our day to day activities with a certain amount of enthusiasm and confidence. Entertainment can take various forms - sports, movies, music, theatre, books, painting etc. As we try various sources of entertainment, we develop a liking to certain form of entertainment. Some people prefer music over sports, others prefer movies over books and so on. Not to mention that each form of entertainment would have hundreds or thousands categories.

As we continue to follow one form of entertainment over a period of time, we develop a liking to certain active players in that form of entertainment. Over time this liking develops into an adulation. These active players in a particular entertainment field become our heroes and we their fans. Not to forget that we can have heroes in fields outside the entertainment arena itself (our family, school, national politics etc.). And from this moment onwards, the activities of our heroes will start influencing our life in some way or the other. Some of us might follow their lead and enter the same field like our heroes (choosing writing as a career because we like Michael Chricton for example), others might follow their style of dressing, still others might become very serious advocates of the cause with which their heroes are associated with (e.g. Live Strong - wrist band)

Coincidence, Correlation or Causality!

Every now and then we come across very interesting forwards regarding relationship between events and predictions based on those events. Yesterday, I came across this very funny yet heartwarming prediction. Heartwarming because it was about the Indian Cricket Team and what their performance is going to be, in the ongoing ICC Cricket World cup. This forward was sent to me by one of my friends who work in an IT company in India’s Silicon Valley. IT companies’ intranets have become hotbeds for such discussions, debates and forwards.

The culture of sending forwards has become so endemic among IT professionals that they have come up with a tagline for this habit. And the tagline is ‘Great people talk about ideas, average people talk about things, small people talk about others. But legends never talk, they forward emails.’ To put it in a funny way, IT professionals seem to grossly abuse the idea of free exchange of ideas.

Coming back to the forward on Indian Cricket Team: we have to go back a few years in time. The Year was 1981; the whole of England was in a festive mood and was celebrating the marriage of their Crown Prince Charles Windsor with Diana. The same year English Football Club ‘Liverpool’ was basking under the glory of having been crowned the European Football champions. Also the Australian Cricket Team lost the Ashes Bilateral Cricket series to England. The same year, the head of the world Catholic Churches, the Pope John Paul I passed away. The following year (1982) the Italian National Soccer Team was crowned World Champions by winning the FIFA world cup. You might just be wondering what these discrete pieces of information have to do with the Indian Cricket Team. Well, one year later (1983) the Indian Cricket Team surprised the mighty Caribbean Cricket Team (who were marching towards winning their third successive world cup), the whole cricketing world and themselves by winning the Prudential Cricket world cup. Now for people, who are asking ‘so what’, please continue reading.

The year was 2005. Prince Charles once again got married, this time to Camela Parker Bowles. Liverpool again became European Champions, the invincible Australian Cricket Team lost the Ashes again and Pope John Paul II passed away. A year later in 2006, Italy won the FIFA World cup. Now based on these chains of events and comparing them with the chain of events that took place from 1981 to 1983, IT Forwards’ Pundits and Prediction Gurus are predicting that the Indian Cricket Team will win the ICC world cup. What more, they are even pointing to the fact that like the Italian Soccer team the Indian Cricket Team also wears blue jersey. Not only this, while West Indian Cricket Team was looking forward to winning their third successive world cup in 1983, this year it is the Australian Cricket Team which is looking forward to winning their third successive world cup.

Well, what can one say? The forward goes on to finish that, the next time Prince Charles gets married or plans for a marriage, the Pope should be careful!!! Well, this is a perfect example of how the probability of one event occurring would leave some parties well off and some parties worse off. – Poor Pope!

Will India win the world cup? Being an Indian, I would want this prediction to come true and India to win the world cup. If India wins the world cup, then there would be a perfect correlation (at least theoretically) between each one of these events that took place from 1981 to 1983 and the events that took place/ supposed to take place between 2005 and 2007.

Well now let’s pose the broader question. Do all correlations convey causality? Not necessarily. In the case of this particular example I doubt if a correlation exists between these events in the first place. To be honest it is possible to come up with correlation analysis and find a positive correlation between any unconnected events.

One of the funniest examples about correlation that I can remember is from one of the books that I read on Portfolio Analysis (Stock Market related). The book quotes an example where the Stock Market Pundits were able to find a positive correlation between the U.S. stock market performance and of all things, the length of the American women’s skirts!!! In each of the years in which Mini-skirts were a fashion, the U.S. stock markets performed really well. In each of the years in which long skirts were the fashion, the U.S. stock market dived south. In this case while there was perfect correlation between the two events, we cannot say one led to the other.

The last three decades have seen the U.S. and of late the world Capital markets following a 10-11 year cycle. The U.S. economy went into a recession in 1982. In 1991-92 the U.S. economy once again tanked. In 2001, the whole of world economy went southwards. Now comes the interesting part (at least according to me): The Solar cycle also follows an 11 year cycle. At this point of time the world economy is much more integrated than it was a few decades ago. The majority of world economies are based on agriculture and farming. Now Agriculture and farming are dependent on the sun (and the changes in weather that it causes). Now what I am interested in knowing is that, will there be correlation or better causal relationship between the Solar Cycle and the Capital Markets of the world. Well, will any one of those economist sitting across the globe have an answer to this Multi-Trillion Dollar Question?